Heena Sharma Blog

The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is likely to hit the global economy, including India, hard over the next few months. With nearly 75 per cent of the Indian economy in lockdown mode, Nomura has lowered the 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.5 per cent. “We now expect GDP growth to slide from 4.7 per cent y-o-y in Q4 2019 to 3.1 per cent in Q1 and plunge to -6.1 per cent in Q2, when both domestic and external demand will weaken. We are building in a sequential pickup in the second half of 2020, but the pace of recovery is likely to be much weaker given some lasting damage to potential output,” wrote Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura in a co-authored report with Aurodeep Nandi titled 'COVID-19’s impact on the world economy'. In its worst case projection if the Covid-19 pandemic becomes a full-blown credit crisis for India, corporates find it difficult to stay afloat, and banks struggle with the balan...

The Reserve Bank of India Thursday lowered the economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7 per cent due to slowdown in domestic activities and escalation in global trade war. In the April monetary policy, the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019-20 was projected at 7.2 per cent - in the range of 6.8-7.1 per cent for the first half of the fiscal and 7.3-7.4 per cent for the second part - with risks evenly balanced. Data for January-March quarter 2018-19 indicate that domestic investment activity has weakened and overall demand has been weighed down partly by slowing exports, the RBI said after the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which decides on key policy rates. Weak global demand due to escalation in trade wars may further impact India's exports and investment activity, it added. Further, private consumption, especially in rural areas, has weakened in recent months. However, on the positive side, political stability, high capaci...